The Case for Vladimir Guerrero
- Reid Maus
- Jan 6, 2018
- 3 min read
So much of what makes a Hall of Famer is if the player feels like one. What did it feel like watching this player play? Vladimir Guerrero was one of the first superstars I remember gawking at as a kid. He always felt like a Hall of Famer in my heart, and God damn it this is baseball, that’s what it should feel like. Case Closed.
Yesterday, I dived into the case for Johnny Damon, and Damon when you take a deeper look, isn’t too far off of the hall. He just never felt like he would belong. Vlad doesn’t suffer from this. His youthful demeanor, big hacks and cannon arm captured the imagination of Reid Maus and kids likewise throughout the country.
Vlad was a generational hitter, with a career clip just under .320, Vlad sure as hell didn’t walk much, but he didn’t get cheated either. For a free swinger as notorious as Vlad, it’s surprising that Vlad never K’ed up more than 100 times in a season. Feared throughout the league one-third of his walks were intentional. A national league star for the Expos where he was just one homerun away from the 40/40 club. That season was 2002 where he also led the league in hits and stolen bases, he was shoe-in for the MVP that year had it not been for some nobody named Barry Bonds.
He would get that MVP two years later in a trip across the continent, to Anaheim Angels. Leading the American League in runs and total bases, while having a slash line of .337/.391/.598 it’s not hard to see why they gave him the award.
Vlad is currently polling at 94% and will be giving a speech this summer in Cooperstown. The nine time all-star and eight silver slugger deserves it too. Being the franchise player for two different teams in his short 16 year career, Vlad was every Expos fan’s favorite player along with every Angels fan. His career 449 homeruns puts him in the top 40 all time. The power slowly decreased throughout his career, peaking in 2000 then slowly going downhill.
Still the model of consistency, Vlad had just two years in his whole career in which he batted under .300, they both were in the final three years of his career and they were .290 and .295 respectively. 2,500+ hits, 400+ homeruns, just under 1,500 RBIs and a career .319 hitter Vlad is one of the kings of traditional stats.
Though he doesn’t necessarily fall in favor of terms of sabermetrics, mostly because of his shoddy fielding and his inability to take pitches. His career WAR is just 59.3. For reference, the current face of the Angels franchise, Mike Trout has a career WAR of 55.2. Though OPS+ which works just like ERA+, in that it measures hitters and gives them a score based on the league average, which an average hitter would score just about 100, Vlad had just one full season below 100 in OPS+, his final season, which he scored 98. His career was good for 140 in OPS+, which is nothing short of spectacular.
As previously mentioned, Vlad wasn’t the best fielder. He had an absolute rocket for an arm, but falls short as a fielder. His dWAR, defensive wins above replacement, is -10.7, which can never help your case, as fielding is vastly underrated in today’s baseball. He also struggled at times in the postseason. A career slash line of .263/.324/.339 in the playoffs is the opposite of ideal from a star player and future Hall of Famer. He batted under .220 in his career in the Championship series and World Series.
None of that can take away the tremendous player that Vlad was. A shorter career than most Hall of Famers but a fantastic talent, and fantastic person by all reports.
Would I vote for Vlad? Absolutely
Will he get in? Yes he will, and I’m predicting he will poll well into the 90 percentile.
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