Mike's Pigskin Pick: Superbowl LIII
I really thought I had it. I really thought last week was going to be my first perfect week as a Bunts and Punts staff writer. The stars looked like they had aligned. I had accurately predicted the Rams upset victory on the road (I was only one point off the final score by the way) and I just needed the best player in football to beat a Patriots team that was 3-5 on the road this season. A phantom roughing the passer, an offside penalty and a lucky coin toss sealed a Pats victory. For the second time in three postseasons the Patriots benefitted from the MVP not getting the football in overtime. It is perhaps time to start tampering with the OT rules. (Perhaps a future article from yours truly is in order). So here we are again, the all mighty Patriots dynasty against a second year head coach. Let’s see if there is anyway the Patriots can lose again.
The key to this game will be the Rams ability to stop this elite Patriots rushing attack. The Chargers and Chiefs were not able to do this and surrendered 155 yards and 176 yards respectively. It is also crucial the Rams establish their own rushing game as the Patriots have out-gained their two playoff opponents by over 100 yards on the ground. It is just really hard to win playoff games when you are getting out-rushed like that. The third key to this game will be the ability for the Rams pass rush to get to Tom Brady. Tom Brady has not taken a sack this entire postseason. Tom Brady has been a wizard against the blitz his entire career except for this season. He actually had the worst passer rating against the blitz among all qualifying this year. The Chargers and Chiefs did not take advantage of this and played soft zone the entire time and didn't generate any sort of rush. The Patriots o-line deserves a ton a credit for this, but the Patriots will pick apart a simple zone scheme every single time. I suspect Belichick will prioritize stopping defensive tackle Aaron Donald who will be the best player on the field for either team. This gives an opportunity for his counterpart Ndamukong Suh to get one on one matchups and create havoc up the middle. Once upon a time, before Aaron Donald was the best defensive player in football there was a strong argument it was Suh. Now they are on the same defensive line and while Suh is past his prime I still think he will turn back the clock and give the Patriots offensive line fits.
Last week I said Brady would pass the torch to Patrick Mahomes. I was wrong. This week I am predicting it will be Belichick, who is perhaps the greatest coach in the history of sports, giving up his strangle hold on the NFL to 33 year old Sean McVay. Jared Goff will need to play like the #1 overall pick, Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib will have to play solid on the back end, and the Rams offensive line will have to establish run lanes for CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley. If all of this happens Tom Brady will lose his 4th Super Bowl.
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