The case for Trevor Hoffman

Now, perhaps more than ever relief pitchers matter in the MLB. As the tired practice of throwing a show pony out on the mound for nine innings and hope he keeps your team in the game is gone. We see every post season how the roles of relief pitching is changing, drastically, and the pillars of the pitching staff (starter, middle, set-up and closer) are being blurred. Former manager Jim Leyland found his style of managing pitchers outdated at the tail end of his career.

The craze of the “All-Star closer” lived briefly in the MLB and like Icarus, flew too close to sun. Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley ushered in Mariano Rivera and today’s case, Trever Hoffman. Now, let me say that relief pitching is the way of the future. I’m not going to spend this time getting on my soap-box and preach that teams should adapt to “Bullpening,” though I desperately want to.

Instead we have to look at how valid it is to put a pitcher in the Hall of Fame, that didn’t start in one game in his entire career. Yes, there is pitchers already in the Hall of Fame that were primarily relievers, Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage come to mind. But there is also former players such Lee Smith that aren’t in.

So we have to do two things, one, determine the validity of putting in a relief pitcher, and two, determine where Hoffman ranks among those who are already in, and those who just missed it.

Obviously relief pitching is a major part of the game. Obviously teams that have deep pitching staffs often are better than those that hit well, but you intelligent, baseball loving fans know that already (the top seven teams in ERA in 2017 made the playoffs.) But is it okay for a pitcher to be in the Hall when he has spent less time pitching than 61 different active pitchers. Players like Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Jeremy Hellickson have all more innings pitched than Trevor Hoffman had in his entire career.

Well, the Hall has already proven that they’ll allow relief pitchers in, where does Hoffman sit on this list. I’m not going to tease you, he sits darn near the top of all time relievers. Second all-time in saves, and of two members in the 600 saves club (the other being future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera.) His career ERA is under 3.00, with a very good 2.87 and he is one of just 16 players to pitch in 1000 games. His k/9 is 9.4 and his career WHIP is 1.058.

I guess what I’m getting at, is just how valuable is a “closer.” Saves are being dismissed in the baseball community because they are a horrible to value a reliever. It is moronic for a team to save their best pitcher for the ninth inning when the game is sometimes won or loss in the sixth or seventh. Let me paint a picture for you. You’re playing a division rival, it’s a close game, and 3-2 is the score. Your starting pitcher gave you a strong showing, but in order to preserve the lead you have to make a change, as two runners are in scoring position and there is only one out. Who do put in? Your best pitcher in the bullpen, right? It seems elementary to think any other way, yet to this day, managers decide to “save” that pitcher for the eighth and ninth inning. Often citing that the ninth inning has a different feel to it than the other eight innings, and I’ve played baseball, that assessment is correct. But imagine that you put in a second-rate reliever in that same scenario and he gives up a hit and the lead, then you’re behind late in the ball game and that “closer” isn’t going to be used, since you’re losing and you only use him to “close” out a win.

That’s why you have look beyond the “save,” when looking at relief pitchers. Hoffman is no different. His WAR is only 28.4 in his career, since he didn’t see the field much. Angels short-stop Andrelton Simmons, already has contributed more to his clubs success in his short career than Hoffman did in his entire 18 years. Surely if he was used in more high leverage situations like the previously discussed one then his WAR would be higher.

I’m self admittedly off topic, and I started diving into the “bullpening” argument without much remorse. I just couldn’t help myself. Anyways, Hoffman, though underutilized by the herd of managers he had in his career, was still one of the best at what he did. A Win Probability Added, perfectly illuminates how important Hoffman was to his teams in his career. You know those win-probability charts you see so much today, well WPA shows how much you contribute to your teams win-probability. Those this stat can only date back to 1974, Trevor Hoffman sits 21st all-time on it (though, he was a closer so he gets a little bump with each save.)

I’m beating around the bush, so let me get straight to it, in definitive fashion. Trevor Hoffman is one of the best relief pitchers of all-time and was the second best in an era that drastically over valued the need of a “closer.” Since the Hall has already admitted entry for other relief pitchers then it would be foolish of me to say that Hoffman doesn’t deserve to be a hall of famer. With that being said…

Would I vote for Hoffman? No. A voter only gets 10 votes and with how stacked the ballot is, I couldn’t vote for a relief pitcher. Though I would vote for him if I had unlimited votes.

Will Hoffman get in? Yes, if not this year, then definitely next year. He is polling at 78.7% good enough to get in, but close to just missing the cut.

#baseball #halloffame #TrevorHoffman