NFL Divisional Predictions
- Michael Pate
- Jan 11, 2018
- 6 min read
I want to start off by thanking Blake Bortles, Tom Coughlin and the entire Jaguars organization for finding a way to beat the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday. I’m not going to lie, when the Bills took an early 3-0 lead I had already begun to think about my escape plan. I had looked at the train schedule and was starting to narrow down my possible destinations. I would be a new man with no history of making horrible picks in the NFL playoffs (I went 1-3 with my predictions last week.) Then the Jaguars defense clamped down and would not allow another point the rest of the game. Sincerely thank you from the bottom of my heart Jacksonville. I can now pick games for the rest of the playoffs and know that I at least got one right. I am forever in your debt.
At the risk of my own embarrassment I am going to attempt to pick the divisional games. This past weekend saw two upsets and not one favorite was able to cover the spread. Welcome to the NFL playoffs. Picking these games is like trying to make a tackle without a helmet. Yeah I know that doesn’t make any sense, but I have a very appropriate gif for that kind of sentence below. Anyway, let’s dive in.
Falcons at Eagles
The Falcons took advantage of a team that just did not seem like they were ready for that kind of spotlight. The Rams were a surprise team that really did not get much recognition until midway through the season. It took until December to realize this was a legitimate playoff team. Once all eyes were on them they choked. Two special teams fumbles led to 10 points in the first half and really set the tone for the game. The Falcons defense only allowed 3 points in the second half which ultimately led to them pulling off the upset.
Eagles fans should feel sick to their stomach. They had the MVP. They had the best team in football. One ACL tear and all of that is taken away. In an important game against the Rams that had first round bye implications, Carson Wentz ran for a late touchdown that gave his team the league. Only it didn’t, the Eagles were called for holding and Carson Wentz came hobbling back to the huddle. Then on a torn knee, he threw for a touchdown to give his team the lead on his final play of the season. Since the injury Nick Foles is completing 56% of this passes and barely scraped by the Giants and the Raiders.
The Falcons have their flaws. Todd Gurley rushed for over 100 yards (hey at least I got that right), and Matt Ryan was sacked three times (I am on fire!) I also think it is worth mentioning that it will be raining Saturday in Philadelphia. The Falcons are a dome team and do not have to play in those type of conditions often. This is the first time in NFL history that the #6 seed is favored against the #1 seed in the divisional round. I think it is warranted and maybe if it was snowing, 50 degrees colder and Nick Foles got more than two games under his belt this season I would have the Eagles scrape by, but I don’t.
Falcons 24 Eagles 16
Titans at Patriots
What a weird game. The Chiefs had a 21-3 halftime lead and looked like they were going to run away with it. Then the strangest second half of football happened. Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown to himself and had a key block to seal the game. Has Tom Brady ever done that? Andy Reid called a weird option play and went for a controversial fourth down even though he had three timeouts and the two minute warning. The Chiefs only had the ball for about eight minutes and only had a chance for a field goal because of a Titans turnover and it naturally doinked off the goal post. Give credit where credit is due, the Titans found a way and it was on the legs of Derrick Henry and Mariota averaging six yards a carry.
The Patriots were Super Bowl favorites going into the year as they should have been. This is a team that scouts talent better than anyone. They have had the same coordinators since 2012. You know how rare that is? The Bengals, who hadn’t won a playoff game in that stretch, lost 3 coordinators to head coaching jobs since 2012. It actually doesn’t make any sense. No coordinator position has been held by the same person since 2012 for any team and the Patriots have two. They have the greatest coach to ever live and are going to be contenders every year while he is there.
How long is that going to be though? Reports have surfaced that Belichick was extremely upset that Robert Kraft forced Belichick to trade Jimmy Garoppolo. Will this be the final season we see Tom Brady and Belichick together? I think yes, and I do think it will be a distraction in these playoffs. However, this team still has Rob Gronkowski and the Titans are in no position to challenge the champs at this point.
Titans 10 Patriots 34
Jaguars at Steelers
The Jaguars and the Bills held each other to less than 300 yards of offense each. Each team also averaged less than four yards per play. Blake Bortles was bad. I mean really bad. He rushed for more yards (88) than he passed for(87.) The Jaguars only converted on two third downs, but they did convert on the most important play of the game when on fourth down, Blake Bortles hit Ben Koyack in the back of the endzone for the go ahead score. The Jaguars forced two turnovers in their win.
The Steelers have the best three headed monster in the NFL. The killer “B’s” are for real. How healthy are they though? Antonio Brown missed the final regular season game and while he is expected to play I do not believe he will be at 100%. The Steelers and Patriots seemed to be in their own class when it came to the AFC. The Steelers looked like they had beaten the Patriots in Heinz field until a controversial call took away a touchdown. Miami University graduate Big Ben Roethlisberger (love and honor) would throw an interception on the next play.
The Jaguars have already beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They won the game 30-9 and forced five interceptions. Roethlisberger was contemplating retirement after the game. Bortles will be facing a less stingy pass defense than the Bills. The Steelers secondary has been their weakness all year. The offense will run through Leonard Fournette and Bortles just has to not mess things up. The Jaguars know how to play the Steelers and they are going to find a way to win ugly.
Jaguars 19 Steelers 17
Saints at Vikings
Drew Brees was phenomenal Sunday. It is truly a shame it has taken this long to get Drew Brees help. One can’t help but imagine how much hardware he would have if he was in the same situation as Tom Brady. The run game, which had a been a strength for the Saints all year was non existent. Brees threw for over 300 yards while the Saints averaged less than two yards per rush. The difference in this game came in the Red zone. Brees was getting touchdowns while Newton was getting field goals. Granted, the Saints have much better weapons than the Panthers have, but that was the difference in the game and the Saints are a very good football team with a real chance of winning the whole thing.
There is just something you can’t put your finger on about the Vikings. You kept waiting for them to lose to the better teams in the NFC, but they just didn’t. They beat Atlanta and Los Angeles with Case Keenum at the helm. They only lost to Carolina by seven, but it was their third straight road game after previously playing divisional rival Detroit and Atlanta. That is a brutal three game stretch that most teams would not go 2-1. They also gave up a total of 17 points in their final three games combined.
The Vikings have very underrated weapons in Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. The Saints are going to struggle running the ball as they did against Carolina. The difference is this Vikings secondary is a much more formidable unit. This is going to be the best game of the weekend in my opinion. I have the Vikings winning by one touchdown.
Saints 20 Vikings 27
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